How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign

Analysis How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign
People mingle in the CNN Spin Room ahead of a CNN Presidential Debate on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. (AFP)
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Updated 28 June 2024
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How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign

How the Biden-Trump debate could change the trajectory of the 2024 campaign

ATLANTA: President Joe Biden and his Republican rival, Donald Trump, will meet for a debate on Thursday that offers an unparalleled opportunity for both candidates to try to reshape the political narrative.

Biden, the Democratic incumbent, gets the chance to reassure voters that, at 81, he’s capable of guiding the US through a range of challenges. The 78-year-old Trump, meanwhile, could use the moment to try to move past his felony conviction in New York and convince an audience of tens of millions that he’s temperamentally suited to return to the Oval Office.

Biden and Trump enter the night facing fierce headwinds, including a public weary of the tumult of partisan politics. Both candidates are disliked by majorities of Americans, according to polling, and offer sharply different visions on virtually every core issue. Trump has promised sweeping plans to remake the US government if he returns to the White House and Biden argues that his opponent would pose an existential threat to the nation’s democracy.

With just over four months until Election Day, their performances have the rare potential to alter the trajectory of the race. Every word and gesture will be parsed not just for what both men say but how they interact with each other and how they hold up under pressure.

“Debates tend not to change voters’ perception in ways that change their vote: They ordinarily reinforce, not persuade,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, the director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania and an expert on presidential communications. “What makes this debate different is that you have in essence two incumbents about whom voters have very well-formed views. But that doesn’t mean that those perceptions are right or match what voters will see on stage.”

The debate marks a series of firsts

Trump and Biden haven’t been on the same stage or even spoken since their last debate weeks before the 2020 presidential election. Trump skipped Biden’s inauguration after leading an unprecedented and unsuccessful effort to overturn his loss to Biden that culminated in the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection by his supporters.

Thursday’s broadcast on CNN will be the earliest general election debate in history. It’s the first-ever televised general election presidential debate hosted by a single news outlet after both campaigns ditched the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, which had organized every matchup since 1988.

Under the network’s rules, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. did not qualify.

Aiming to avoid a repeat of their chaotic 2020 matchups, Biden insisted — and Trump agreed — to hold the debate without an audience and to allow the network to mute the candidates’ microphones when it is not their turn to speak. There will be two commercial breaks, another departure from modern practice. The candidates have agreed not to consult staff or others while the cameras are off.

The timing follows moves by both candidates to respond to nationwide trends toward early voting by shifting forward the political calendar. It remains to be seen whether the advanced schedule will dampen the effects of any missteps or crystallize them in the public’s mind.

“You have two men that have not debated in four years,” said Phillippe Reines, a Democratic political consultant who helped former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton prepare for debates with Trump in 2016.

Biden and Trump, he said, “don’t like each other, haven’t seen each other, (are) pretty rusty heading into the biggest night of their lives. That about sums up what’s at stake on Thursday.”

Both sides recognize the stakes

The debate falls days after the second anniversary of the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, ending a federally guaranteed right to abortion and pushing reproductive rights into the center of politics ever since.

The faceoff also occurs just after the Biden White House took executive action to restrict asylum claims at the US-Mexico border in an effort to lower the number of migrants entering the country. Trump has made illegal immigration a centerpiece of his campaign.

The wars in Ukraine and Gaza loom over the race, as do the candidates’ sharply differing views about America’s role in the world and its alliances. Differences on inflation, tax policy and government investment to build infrastructure and fight climate change will provide further contrasts.

Also in the political background: The Supreme Court is on the brink of announcing its decision on whether Trump is legally immune for his alleged role in the Jan. 6 insurrection. That’s weeks after Trump was convicted in New York of taking part in a hush money scheme that prosecutors alleged was intended to unlawfully influence the 2016 election.

Biden spent the week leading up to the debate secluded at Camp David with senior White House and campaign aides as well as a coterie of longtime advisers and allies. A mock stage was built at the compound to simulate the studio where the debate will be held, and Biden’s personal attorney, Bob Bauer, was reprising his role as Trump in practice sessions.

Aides say the work reflects Biden’s understanding that he can’t afford a flat showing. They insist the sometimes stodgy orator would rise to the occasion.

“You know this president,” said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre Thursday. “He likes to fight.”

Trump, meanwhile, has continued his more unstructured debate prep with two days of meetings at his Florida estate, phoning allies and supporters, and road-testing attacks in social media postings and in interviews with conservative-leaning outlets. The unorganized style that is a hallmark of the former president’s often-rambling rally speeches could present a challenge in the regimented, tightly timed debate format.

Trump and his aides have spent months chronicling what they argue are signs of Biden’s diminished stamina. In recent days, they’ve started to predict Biden will be stronger on Thursday, aiming to raise expectations for the incumbent.

The candidates have Georgia on their mind

Atlanta, the debate’s host city, offers symbolic and practical meaning for the campaign, but each side believes that what happens there will resonate far and wide.

In 2020, Biden secured Georgia’s 16 electoral votes with a margin of less than 12,000 votes out of 5 million cast. Trump pushed the state’s Republican leadership to overturn his victory based on false theories of voter fraud, memorably being caught on tape saying he wanted to “find 11,780 votes.” He now faces state racketeering charges.

Both campaigns held a flurry of events in Atlanta leading into the debate, including competing events at Black-owned local businesses. Trump called in Friday to a gathering at Rocky’s Barbershop in the Buckhead community to talk about his matchup with Biden and question whether CNN moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash would treat him fairly.

Heading out of the debate, both Biden and Trump will travel to states they hope to swing their way this fall. Trump is heading to Virginia, a onetime battleground that has shifted toward Democrats in recent years.

Biden is set to jet off to North Carolina, where he is expected to hold the largest-yet rally of his campaign in a state Trump narrowly carried in 2020.


Bangladesh imports fertilizers from Saudi Arabia to boost food security

Bangladesh imports fertilizers from Saudi Arabia to boost food security
Updated 13 sec ago
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Bangladesh imports fertilizers from Saudi Arabia to boost food security

Bangladesh imports fertilizers from Saudi Arabia to boost food security
  • Saudi Arabia supplies about one-third of country’s DAP fertilizer demand
  • The Kingdom is Dhaka’s ‘preferred country’ partner for fertilizer imports

Dhaka: Bangladesh has secured a two-year deal to import 400,000 tons of fertilizer from Saudi Arabia, the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation said on Sunday as the South Asian country seeks to boost its food security.

Bangladeshi officials have been working to increase food production as the country faces rising food demand amid decreasing farming land due to rapid urbanization and a growing population.

The BADC signed the new agreement with Saudi state-owned company Ma’aden in Riyadh on Dec. 15, following years-long cooperation between them.

“Good quality fertilizer plays a vital role in ensuring food security for our 175 million people. This fertilizer helps us increase productivity by many folds,” BADC general manager Ahmed Hassan Al-Mahmud told Arab News.

Under the latest deal, Ma’aden will supply 400,000 tonnes of diammonium phosphate fertilizer every year until 2026 and provide training for Bangladeshi farmers.

“The Saudi state-owned fertilizer company offered to provide training for our farmers, for the purpose of knowledge transfer on optimizing the use of the DAP fertilizers,” Al-Mahmud said, adding that Ma’aden has also offered to build fertilizer warehouses in Bangladesh.

The Saudi imports will contribute to about one-third of Bangladesh’s annual DAP fertilizer needs, which stands at about 1.3 million tonnes, he added.

Bangladesh also stands to benefit more from the latest agreement, as the fertilizers cost $2 less per tonne compared to the average market price.

“It will save us a significant amount of money,” Al-Mahmud said. “Saudi Arabia has been our trusted supplier for a long time, and we can purchase it at a reasonable rate compared with other sources.”

While the South Asian nation also imports from China and Morocco, Al-Mahmud said that the Kingdom was a “dependable and reliable source.”

He added: “We have been importing fertilizer from the Kingdom for more than 15 years. It takes only around 2 weeks to import fertilizer from the Kingdom, while from Morocco it takes more than 6 weeks. From that perspective also, Saudi Arabia is our preferred country for importing fertilizer.”


Jeju Air flight crashes in South Korea, killing nearly all passengers

Jeju Air flight crashes in South Korea, killing nearly all passengers
Updated 37 min 34 sec ago
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Jeju Air flight crashes in South Korea, killing nearly all passengers

Jeju Air flight crashes in South Korea, killing nearly all passengers
  • At least 177 people have been confirmed dead, while 2 were rescued
  • The crash is one of South Korea’s worst aviation disasters

SEOUL: A passenger plane carrying 181 people belly-landed and crashed at an airport in southwestern South Korea on Sunday morning, killing at least 177 people, officials said. 

Jeju Air flight 7C2216 had taken off from Bangkok with 175 passengers and six crew on board. It was landing at Muan International Airport, about 290 km south of Seoul, when it crashed at around 9 a.m. 

Footage broadcast by local media showed the Boeing 737-800 skidding across the airstrip, apparently with its landing gear still closed, and colliding head-on with the airport’s concrete fence before bursting into flames. Only the aircraft’s tail was recognizable after the explosion. 

“After the plane hit the fence, passengers were flung out of the aircraft. There is almost no possibility of survival,” the National Fire Agency said during a briefing held for the victims’ families. 

At least 177 people died in the fire and two people remain missing about 10 hours after the incident, the fire agency said. Emergency workers have rescued two crew members, whom health officials said are conscious and not in life-threatening condition. 

Ju Jong-wan, senior official at the Ministry of Land, Traffic and Infrastructure, said the control tower had issued a bird strike warning that was followed by the pilots declaring a mayday shortly afterward, before the aircraft made its ill-fated attempt to belly land at the airport. 

“Bird strike and landing gear malfunction are being suggested as possible causes of the accident, but we will need to do a thorough investigation to determine the true cause,” Ju told a press briefing, adding that the ministry is analyzing both black boxes from the crashed airliner. 

One of the rescued crew members told fire authorities that a bird strike occurred a few minutes before the plane crashed, causing the engine to smoke up and explode. 

A passenger texted a relative to say a bird was stuck in the wing, the News1 agency reported. The person’s final message was: “Should I say my last words?”

The crash is the deadliest aviation accident ever on South Korean soil, more than two decades after an Air China crash that killed 129 people in 2002. It is also the worst aviation accident involving a South Korean airline since a 1997 Korean Air crash in Guam that killed more than 200 people. 

The accident appears to have been the first fatal one for Jeju Air, a low-cost South Korean carrier established in 2005 that flies to dozens of Asian countries. 

“We sincerely apologize to all those suffering because of the accident at Muan International Airport,” said Jeju Air CEO Kim Yi-bae. “I relay my deepest condolences to the victims who have passed away and to the bereaved families … We will cooperate with the government to determine the cause.”

Boeing, the aircraft’s manufacturer, said in a statement that it is in contact with Jeju Air and is “ready to support them.”  

While the US aviation giant has had a turbulent time in recent years, including two 737 Max crashes, analysts have said that the Boeing 737-800 had a strong safety record. 


Mikheil Kavelashvili sworn in as Georgia’s president amid political crisis

Mikheil Kavelashvili sworn in as Georgia’s president amid political crisis
Updated 29 December 2024
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Mikheil Kavelashvili sworn in as Georgia’s president amid political crisis

Mikheil Kavelashvili sworn in as Georgia’s president amid political crisis
  • Current President Salome Zurabishvili has refused to step down when her term ends and demanded new elections
  • Parliament, controlled by the governing Georgian Dream party, is shortly expected to inaugurate Mikheil Kavelashvili

TBILISI: At least 2,000 pro-EU protesters gathered in Tbilisi on Sunday as Mikheil Kavelashvili, a hardline critic of the West, took the oath of office as Georgia’s president

Kavelashvili’s inauguration has sparked a political crisis in the South Caucasus country, whose government has frozen European Union application talks, provoking major protests.

Georgia’s pro-EU president Salome Zurabishvili declared she was the country’s “only legitimate president”, refusing to step down as her term ended Sunday with the inauguration of a disputed successor but saying she would vacate the presidential palace.

“I remain the only legitimate president,” she told thousands of pro-EU demonstrators. “I will leave the presidential palace and stand with you, carrying with me the legitimacy, the flag and your trust.”

Months of political crisis are poised to enter an unpredictable phase, and it is unclear what will happen if Zurabishvili does not leave the presidential palace.

Parliament, controlled by the governing Georgian Dream party, is shortly expected to inaugurate its loyalist Mikheil Kavelashvili, a far-right former footballer.

An AFP reporter in Tbilisi saw a growing crowd of protesters outside the presidential palace, with many bringing EU flags and chanting “Georgia!”

Many held on to the railings of the presidential palace, which was decorated with a large Georgian and EU flag.

Zurabishvili and protesters have accused Georgian Dream of rigging the October parliamentary election, demanding a fresh vote.

They say this makes Kavelashvili’s inauguration illegitimate.

Zurabishvili had said she would spend the night in the palace, calling on protesters to come in the morning.

Her term is due to end with the inauguration of a successor.

Georgia has been gripped by protests throughout 2024, with Georgian Dream’s opponents accusing it of steering Tbilisi toward Moscow rather than toward the Caucasus country’s longstanding goal of joining the EU.


Impeached South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol defies summons third time in a row

Impeached South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol defies summons third time in a row
Updated 29 December 2024
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Impeached South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol defies summons third time in a row

Impeached South Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol defies summons third time in a row
  • Yoon Suk Yeol also failed to attend a hearing he was summoned to last Wednesday, giving no explanation for his absence
  • The conservative leader was stripped of his duties by parliament on December 14, following a short-lived martial law declaration

SEOUL: South Korea’s suspended President Yoon Suk Yeol refused a summons to appear for questioning on Sunday, the third time he has defied investigators’ demands in two weeks.
Investigators probing Yoon had ordered him to appear for questioning at 10 am (GMT 0100) on Sunday, a demand he rejected.
Yoon, a former prosecutor, also failed to attend a hearing he was summoned to last Wednesday, giving no explanation for his absence.
The conservative leader was stripped of his duties by parliament on December 14, following a short-lived martial law declaration that plunged the country into its worst political crisis in decades.
Yoon faces impeachment and criminal charges of insurrection, which could result in life imprisonment or even the death penalty, in a drama that has shocked democratic South Korea’s allies around the world.
“President Yoon Suk Yeol did not appear at the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) at 10 am today,” said the office in a statement.
“The Joint Investigation Headquarters will review and decide on future measures,” it added.
The CIO is expected to decide in the coming days whether to issue a fourth summons or ask a court to grant an arrest warrant to compel Yoon to appear for questioning.
He is being investigated by prosecutors as well as a joint team comprising police, defense ministry, and anti-corruption officials, while the Constitutional Court deliberates on the impeachment motion passed by parliament.
If upheld by the court, which is required to deliver its ruling within six months of the impeachment, a by-election must be held within 60 days of the court’s decision.
Former president Park Geun-hye was impeached under similar circumstances, but she was investigated only after the Constitutional Court removed her from power.
A 10-page prosecutors’ report seen by AFP stated that Yoon Suk Yeol authorized the military to fire their weapons if needed to enter parliament during his failed bid to impose martial law.


Russia will abandon moratorium on deployment of short and medium range missiles, Lavrov tells RIA

Russia will abandon moratorium on deployment of short and medium range missiles, Lavrov tells RIA
Updated 29 December 2024
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Russia will abandon moratorium on deployment of short and medium range missiles, Lavrov tells RIA

Russia will abandon moratorium on deployment of short and medium range missiles, Lavrov tells RIA
  • Washington withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty in 2019

MOSCOW: Russia will scrap a proposed moratorium on the deployment of short- and medium-range missiles as the United States started to deploy such weapons, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in an interview with RIA news agency published on Sunday.
“We are assessing the situation on the basis of an analysis of the destabilising actions of the United States and NATO in the strategic sphere and, accordingly, the evolution of the threats that arise from them,” Lavrov said.
“Today it is clear that, for example, our moratorium on the deployment of short- and medium-range missiles is no longer practically viable and will have to be abandoned. The US has arrogantly ignored the warnings of Russia and China and in practice has moved on to the deployment of weapons of this class in various regions of the world.”
Washington withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty in 2019. Russia has since said it will not deploy such weapons provided that Washington does not.